Shibuya, R., M. Nakano, C. Kodama, T. Nasuno, K. Kikuchi, M. Satoh, H. Miura, and T. Miyakawa, 2021: Prediction skill of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model simulations with explicit cloud microphysics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99, 973-992.
Special Edition on DYAMOND: The DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains
Graphical Abstract Published
Plain Language Summary:
This study assessed a prediction skill of the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) mode using one-month simulations by a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. It was found that the model showed an BSISO prediction skill of approximately 24 days, while the prediction skill tended to be higher (~2 days) when the BSISO events began in the initial phases where a major convective center was located over the Philippine Sea.
- The initial phase-dependency of the prediction skill was associated with a stagnant behavior of the convective cells over the Philippines sea in the model.
- Based on a regression coefficient analysis, the stagnation of the propagation over the Philippines could be attributed to biases of the background monsoonal circulation in the model.