Graphical Abstract

Takemura, K., T. Enomoto, and H. Mukougawa, 2021: Predictability of enhanced monsoon trough related to the meandered Asian jet and consequent Rossby wave breaking in late August 2016. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99, 339-356. Graphical Abstract Published


Plain Language Summary: Predictability of an enhanced monsoon trough south of Japan seen in late August 2016 is diagnosed. The monsoon trough is found to be enhanced by a meandering of the Asian jet and by a subsequent Rossby wave breaking east of Japan (Fig. 1). Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s operational one-month ensemble forecast from 12 UTC 16 August 2016 fails to predict the enhanced monsoon trough. The main findings obtained from the predictability assessment are summarized as follows.