Graphical Abstract

Kawabata, Y., and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone track forecasts with multiple ensembles. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833. Abstract with highlights
JMSJ Editor's Highlight JMSJ Awards 2020

Plain Language Summary: The effectiveness of the probability ellipse for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is investigated with multiple ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the Met Office in the United Kingdom (UKMO), for all TCs from 2016 to 2018. The multiple ensembles composed of these four global ensembles are capable of predicting the situation-dependent uncertainties of TC track forecasts appropriately in both the along-track and cross-track directions.