Watanabe, S. I., A. Murata, H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka, 2019: Future projection of tropical cyclone precipitation over Japan with a high-resolution regional climate model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 97, 805-820.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-045 Graphical Abstract with highlights
Plain Language Summary: This study evaluated future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05). The total TC precipitation does not change significantly, while the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases due to the intensification of TC precipitation rate. The increase of water vapor and the intensification and structural changes of the TCs contribute to the increase of TC precipitation rate.
- NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than a general circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 20 km.
- The total TC precipitation shows no significant change due to a balance between a reduction of TC approaching Japan and an increase of TC precipitation rate.
- The frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification of the TC precipitation rate overcomes the reduction of TC number.