Ogata, T., H. Ueda, T. Inoue, M. Hayasaki, A. Yoshida, S. Watanabe, M. Kira, M. Ooshiro, and A. Kumai, 2014: Projected future changes in the Asian monsoon: A comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 model results. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 92, 207-225.
- Evaluations of the summer/winter Asian monsoon through the late 20th century (1981–2000) were conducted on the basis of model simulations using 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and 24 Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model datasets. Based on these evaluations, we examined projected future (2081–2100) changes in the summer/winter Asian monsoon, including those of the tropical Hadley–Walker circulation, for mid-range emission scenarios (SRES-A1B for CMIP3 and RCP4.5 for CMIP5).
- In boreal summer, the CMIP5 MME shows a projected acceleration of climatological low-level monsoon westerlies (Figure 1a), especially in subtropical regions (10°–20°N). This is robust feature in most CMIP5 models (Figure 2a, 2b).
- In boreal winter, the CMIP5 MME shows a projected intensification of the Aleutian Low (Figure 1b), but future change of Asian winter monsoon circulation (measured by 850-hPa meridional wind around Japan) has large uncertainties in individual CMIP5 models (Figure 2c).