Graphical Abstract

Takemura, K., T. Enomoto, and H. Mukougawa, 2021: Predictability of enhanced monsoon trough related to the meandered Asian jet and consequent Rossby wave breaking in late August 2016. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99,
Early Online ReleaseGraphical Abstract NEW GA


Plain Language Summary: Predictability of an enhanced monsoon trough south of Japan seen in late August 2016 is diagnosed. The monsoon trough is found to be enhanced by a meandering of the Asian jet and by a subsequent Rossby wave breaking east of Japan (Fig. 1). Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s operational one-month ensemble forecast from 12 UTC 16 August 2016 fails to predict the enhanced monsoon trough. The main findings obtained from the predictability assessment are summarized as follows.