Graphical Abstract

Ose, T., Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, and T. Nakaegawa, 2020: Resolution of summertime East Asian pressure pattern and southerly monsoon wind in CMIP5 multi-model future projections. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 927-944. Graphical Abstract with highlights

Plain Language Summary: The southerly surface wind index over the summertime East Asia (SWI) is strengthened in the future in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, the differences among the models are much larger than the ensemble average (Fig. 1a). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the future changes in the East Asian surface pressure pattern responsible for the SWI. The ensemble average and five EOF modes for the pressure patterns and the associated precipitation changes are identified, and their possible sources are examined. The first mode is high surface pressure anomalies over low Asia Pacific sea surface temperature. The second mode is related to warm temperature anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The third mode is characterized with suppressed vertical motions over the northern Indian and Pacific oceans. The fourth mode is the Okhotsk High. The fifth mode represents the east–west contrast of the southern East Asian surface pressure anomalies.