Jinno, T., T. Miyakawa, and M. Satoh, 2019: NICAM predictability of the monsoon gyre over the western North Pacific during August 2016. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 97, 533-540.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-017 Graphical Abstract with highlights
Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015–2016
Plain Language Summary: A series of hindcast simulations were performed using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) to reproduce the temporal evolution of the monsoon gyre in August 2016. The simulations that were initiated at dates during the mature stage of the monsoon gyre successfully reproduced its termination and the subsequent intensification of the Bonin high, whereas the simulations initiated before the formation and during the developing stage of the gyre failed to reproduce subsequent gyre evolution even at a short lead time.
- In August 2016, a monsoon gyre persisted over the western North Pacific and was associated with the genesis of multiple devastating tropical cyclones.
- The experiments suggest a possibility that the development of the Bonin high is related to the termination of the monsoon gyre.