Zhuge, X., and X. Zou, 2018: Summertime convective initiation nowcasting over Southeastern China based on Advanced Himawari Imager observations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 96, 337-353.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2018-041 Graphical Abstract with highlights
- Using high spatial and temporal resolution and multispectral data from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board Japanese new-generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8, a standalone convective initiation (CI) nowcasting algorithm was developed in this study. The new algorithm is skillful in predicting the CI occurrences associated with warm-rain processes.
- The 216 CI events were identified from July to September 2015 by the CI nowcasting algorithm, which gives an averaged probability of detection (POD) of 96.82% and 96.61% at daytime and nighttime, respectively.
- The forecast lead time for the CI nowcasting algorithm varied from 14 to 120 minutes with a median value of 60 minutes. A cumulus object continually developed with a more rapid rate had a shorter forecast lead time. If a cumulus object grows slowly after the cloud-top temperature dropped below 10 °C, an early detection of CI is relatively easier and the forecast lead time is longer.