Weng, Y., and F. Zhang, 2016: Advances in convection-permitting tropical cyclone analysis and prediction through EnKF assimilation of reconnaissance aircraft observations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94, 345-358.
http://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-018 Graphical Abstract with highlights
- Overviewing of the recent advances in analysis and prediction of tropical cyclones through assimilation of reconnaissance aircraft observations; and designed a cycling WRF-EnKF analysis and prediction system to evaluate the impact of airborne reconnaissance data assimilation on hurricane intensity forecast.
- Assimilating of reconnaissance data shows positive impacts on both hurricane track and intensity forecasts with an reduction of 2∼14% for position forecast errros and 1∼37% for minimal sea level pressure forecast errors for forecast lead times 0∼126 h, and 1∼11% for maximal 10-m wind speed forecast errors during the 24∼114 h leadtimes averaged over all 636 applicable cases during 2008-2012.
- The aircraft hurricane reconnaissance data is now routinely assimilated into the operational hurricane forecast model HWRF performed at NOAA.