Muramatsu, T., T. Kato, M. Nakazato, H. Endo, and A. Kitoh, 2016: Future change of tornadogenesis-favorable environmental conditions in Japan estimated by a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94A, 105-120.
http://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-053 Graphical Abstract with highlights
- This is the first study to assess future changes in the occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for strong tornadoes (F2 or greater on the Fujita scale) in Japan using the results of climate experiments under the A1B emissions scenario with a 20-km-mesh, high-resolution atmospheric global circulation model.
- Nearly a doubling of the FSC was projected in almost all areas of the Japanese Islands in MAM and on the Japan Sea side of the Japanese Islands in JJA (Fig.1c and 1f).
- Future increases of the FSC are mainly caused by intensification of atmospheric instability caused by increases of the water-vapor mixing ratio and a temperature rise in the lower troposphere.