Enomoto, T., S. Yamane, W. Ohfuchi, 2015: Simple sensitivity analysis using ensemble forecasts. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 199-213.
- Two formulations approximating singular-vector and adjoint methods are derived using an ensemble forecast to identify the sensitive initial perturbations that grow in a specified region at the verification time.
- Sensitivity analysis over Japan shows that the two methods can identify the sensitive regions more specifically than the regions with large ensemble spread for a mid-latitude cyclone in January and a tropical cyclone in August 2003 (Figure 4).
- For an August 2002 storm in Europe, the cyclone deepens a few hPa in its north-east sector with more precipitation north of the Alps more consistently with observations in a global 20-km resolution simulation perturbed with ensemble singular vector.