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Today's paper

Fang, Y., B. Li, and X. Liu, 2019: Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in BCC_CSM model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 97, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-019.
Early Online ReleaseGraphical Abstract with highlights

Plain Language Summary: This study examines the theoretically estimated predictability and practical prediction skill of the he East Asia and western North Pacific boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM2.0). Results show that the prediction skill and predictability of BSISO in BCC_CSM2.0 are 14 and 24-28 days respectively. The model shows a strong dependence on initial/target BSISO phase and amplitude.

Highlights:

  • 14-year hindcast experiments initialized with 5-day interval and 4–member ensemble indicate that prediction skill and predictability of BSISO are about 14 and 24-28 days respectively.
  • Relatively higher prediction skill is found for the initially/target strong BSISO cases, while lower skill occurs when the BSISO-related rain-band propagates northward from the western North Pacific to the East Asia.
  • Systematic errors are found such as underestimation of BSISO amplitude and faster phase speed.

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